Description: Different mortality projection methodologies are utilized by actuaries across applications and practice areas. As a result, the MIM Advisory Group developed a single framework to serve as a consistent base for practitioners in projecting mortality improvement.

Description: This report introduces quantum computing to actuaries. In addition, this research will assess and identify areas in the insurance field where quantum computing can make a difference, accompanied with suggested algorithms.

Description: ALM and hedging can reap significant benefits from innovation in computation and operations research. Explore applications of static and dynamic optimization in two different ALM and hedging use cases. Insurers are increasingly moving offshore by establishing Bermuda captive reinsurers. In calculating the Bermuda Best Estimate Liability ('BEL'), reinsurers will need to segment assets to support liabilities in each treaty. A Linear Programming ('LP') problem can be formulated to tactically select assets in a way that minimizes the BEL and consequently the total asset requirement. Learn more about what US Variable Annuity Insurers face with the regulatory requirement to reflect 'future hedging strategy' in their statutory funding calculation. The traditional numerical method of finding the optimal hedging target and then allocating assets may encounter the curse of dimensionality with expanding product and economic environment complexity. A Reinforcement Learning algorithm may well fit this problem and provide insurers a solution for dynamic hedging.

Description: Actuaries can leverage cluster modeling to reduce model runtime and cloud compute costs, which can be a real concern as companies transition from an on-premise grid to a scalable cloud solution. We consider practical considerations associated with clustering, through both US statutory and US GAAP lenses. Lastly, the results from a variable annuity liability clustering case study are presented.

Description: An overview of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWB) on registered index-linkedannuity (RILA) products and a stochastic analysis of market risks.

Description: Discover the rapidly developing health and wellness industry during the Use of Health and Wellness Data in L&H Risk Assessment webcast. Our discussion includes the maximization of data usage through several different means, including current risk selection, creation of a dynamic ongoing assessment offering or substitution of traditional underwriting information to shorten the underwriting process. Come explore these different approaches as they affect the health and wellness industry. We will express the importance of a constantly changing data usage environment in order to better prepare insurers to maximize their data and drive health and wellness forward.

Description: This is the second of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: In the United States, there has been much industry discussion of the challenges associated with a sustained low interest rate environment, which impacts both the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet in unfavorable ways. The intent of this article is not to focus on these strategic issues. Rather, we attempt to shine a spotlight on some of the modeling challenges that practicing actuaries may experience when incorporating negative interest rates into their models.

Description: This article is the final installment of our three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I and II were published in the November 2019 and August 2020 issues of The Modeling Platform. Part III contextualizes the framework for selecting, building, and validating ESGs and focuses on the Academy Interest Rate Generator (“AIRG”), the most commonly used real-world ESG for US actuaries

Description: This presentation compares continuous-time multi-factor affine cohort mortality models and presents estimation results for an affine multi-factor, multi-cohort mortality model.

Description: Read the November 2020 issue of The Modeling Platform published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: With many complex regulatory changes on the horizon as well as pressures to ensure model accuracy from auditors, regulatory requirements and new actuarial standards of practice, the importance of robust model validation is coming to the forefront of actuaries’ minds. What was previously a day-two task for many companies is becoming just as important as model development! In this session, you will hear from those that have been deeply involved in building model validation frameworks and tools in responses to regulatory changes GAAP Long Duration Targeted Improvements (“LDTI”) and Principles Based Reserves (“PBR”).

Description: The optional phase-in period for life principle-based reserves (PBR) has come to a close, and companies have put in the work to bring their PBR implementations across the finish line. With the mandatory PBR implementation deadline behind them, companies can turn their attention from compliance to model and process improvements. The presenters will outline lessons learned from PBR implementations and their applications to broader use cases, as well as resources that are available for PBR modelers. Discussion topics will include items such as: Model simplifications and validation Model run-time techniques Model scalability (e.g. adding new products / future assumption updates) Sensitivity testing Model projections Available PBR & other modeling resources (e.g. PBR practice note, ASOP 56)

Description: This article will be focused on maximizing the reuse of code using features available within Moody’s Axis specifically targeted at using Formula Link.

Description: Read the April 2020 issue of The Modeling Platform, published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: The session will feature case study discussion of how insurers can improve their model architecture and data visualization to prepare for the increasing demands of the future. Actuarial data and analysis has long been limited by the complexity and diversity of historical systems. External pressure on insurers is higher than ever before, as new requirements take effect under PBR, GAAP Targeted Improvements, and IFRS17.

Description: The session offers high-level initial steps to get started using R, as well as a list of helpful resources for both general data science and actuarial science with R. Attendees will learn about popular R packages to perform practical tasks such as importing, transforming and visualizing data, as well as packages commonly used by actuaries. You will also be introduced to the markdown package for creating reproducible and reusable analyses and workflows. By the end of the session, you will be familiar enough with using R and RStudio to begin incorporating these tools in your day-to-day work as an actuary

Description: There is widespread acknowledgement in the insurance industry that cyber risk remains an untamed and seemingly ever-growing beast. It is also unique in the family of risk exposures faced by insurers in that it is both an emerging risk and an emerged risk. What are companies doing to keep on top of this risk? What are actuaries doing to contribute to cyber risk management, and what can we learn from other industries and disciplines?

Description: Results of 2019 survey to their subgroup members.

Description: Python is the leading programming language for data science. Python programming is one skill that actuaries should acquire. It facilitates analytic work, and the available visualization tools help to communicate ideas. In this article, I use a traditional actuarial problem, mortality modeling, as an example.

Description: Article describes how to write effective model documentation

Description: Read the November 2019 issue of The Modeling Platform, published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: This article is the first installment of a three-part series that aims to provide an overview of ESGs and will focus on the general motivation for stochastic modeling, its advantages and its limitations. Future articles will further break down the key factors of ESGs and the application of these factors to better understand the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG).

Description: This article lays conceptual foundations associated with projecting investment-related discretionary elements of various life insurance and annuity products. It outlines potential implementation approaches that may be appropriate when calculations are performed in a risk-neutral setting. The article concludes that crediting rates in risk-neutral models can be projected as in real-world models, except that the modeled provision for expected credit losses should be modified to equal real-world expected losses initially, but over the projection reflect management’s evolving expectation, moving ultimately to risk neutral expected losses.

Description: This article discusses important implications of the upcoming Long-Duration Targeted Improvements (LDTI) accounting change for the modeling actuary. We discuss the modeling implications of new GAAP standards for Market Risk Benefit (MRB), including identification of MRBs, implementation of fair valuation in actuarial systems and retroactive determination of at-issue valuation inputs for transition. We also examine the modeling implications of the other aspects of the accounting change, including Liability for Future Policy Benefit (LFPB), Deferred Acquisition Cost (DAC), and other transition and disclosure requirements

Description: Summary of the modeling-related sessions from some of the major 2018 Society of Actuaries (SOA) meetings: Life & Annuity Symposium, Health Meeting and the Valuation Actuary Symposium.

Description: This paper provides actuaries with background and scientific knowledge to understand global climate change and climate model projections for the 21st century.

Description: This research report is a summary of an online survey and follow-up discussions with survey respondents on the current state of actuarial modeling controls within U. S. and Canadian life insurance and annuity companies. The current state was then compared to the results from the 2012 survey on this topic to examine the evolution in actuarial model controls and governance. The report also provides an industry assessment and proposes considerations for enhancing the current state towards a well-controlled governance framework.

Description: Read the December 2016 issue of The Modeling Platform published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: For actuarial projections to serve as the management tools that they are intended to be, the persons charged with making those projections need to consider whether the projection is sufficiently sophisticated so that it does not miss major items.It is important to consider the tax effect. This article covers several of the major tax issues that should be considered in any actuarial projection.

Description: This presentation discusses a process for determining the minimum reinsurance retention level consistent with defined parameters. The conclusions reached were: 1. Under PDS dependence, optimal reinsurance strategy is multivariate stop loss form. 2. Explicit solutions could be derived in certain bivariate model. 3. Binding and unbinding constraints are equivalent. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: Actuarial models have always been an important tool for helping companies project future results and understand risks. As complex models have started to become critical components of the reporting and compliance processes, however, models have vaulted to new levels of importance—and of scrutiny. This has raised everyone’s interest in the management of models, and by implication, in their ability to control the inherent model risk. From Small Talk Newsletter, Issue 37, January 2012.

Description: An introduction to the field of Complexity Science. The report includes an overview of the field’s key results, detailed instructions for building Complexity Science models, examples of working models, review of practical models applicable to the work of actuaries, a literature review, and a discussion on how actuaries can apply Complexity Science in their work.

Description: This is the final report of a survey of life insurance companies on the cost of implementing the new principle-based statutory accounting framework.

Description: The attached report presents the results of a survey conducted by the Society of Actuaries Mortality and Underwriting Survey Committee in July of 2008 under the following categories: 1. Modeling Mortality Risk. 2. Use of Reinsurance to Manage Mortality. 3. Retention / Large Case Management. 4. Catastrophe Reinsurance. 5. Mortality Concentration of Risk. 6. Catastrophic Bonds.

Description: Regime switching models have become a popular tool in econometric time series modeling since their introduction in Hamilton [1989].These models have been widely applied for equity-returns for investment guarantees. A prominent risk management challenge is hedging these guarantees, given the equity regime switching process. This presentation develops some methodologies for regime-switching portfolio replication and use real world data to demonstrate and evaluate their effects. A Bayesian approach for regime switching model fitting is used, which allows for the examination of the robustness of each of the optimization methods when parameter uncertainty is present.

Description: This article provides an overview of the commonly used structural credit risk modeling approach that is less familiar to the actuarial community.

Description: This paper focuses on business risks rather than market, credit and operational risks. The author proposes a bottom-up approach for modelling and measuring business risk where the dynamic of the underlying earnings is described in a continuous-time model.

Description: This is a final report for a research project to create reference material that addresses the methods and techniques for quantifying margins for uncertainty in actuarial assumptions under a Principle-based statutory accounting framework.

Description: Automobile insurers classify the risks that they underwrite in order to subdivide the portfolio into classes of risks with similar profiles. While some insurers may have sufficient historical data, several others may not have significant volume of experience data in order to produce reliable claims predictions to help enhance their risk classification systems. A database containing a pooled experience of several insurers thereby helps to produce a more fair, reliable, and equitable premium structure for all risks concerned. This paper uses multilevel models to analyze the data on claim counts provided by the General Insurance Association of Singapore, an organization consisting of most of the general insurers in Singapore. The multilevel nature of the data is due to the following: a certain vehicle is observed over a period of years and is insured by a particular insurance company under a certain 'fleet' policy. The authors show how intercompany data lead to a priori premiums and a posteriori corrections to these initial premiums. Specific focus is made in understanding the intercompany effects using various count distribution models [Poisson, negative binomial, zero–inflated and hurdle Poisson]. The performance of these various models is compared the authors also investigate how to use the historical claims of a company, fleet and/or vehicle in order to correct for the premium initially set.

Description: A disscussion of actuar R, an R package for actuarial science, and its facilities in the fields of loss distribution modeling, risk theory and credibility theory.

Description: This article looks at an extensive integrated collection of financial mathematical modeling packages available in R, a language and environment for statistical computing.

Description: U.K. life insurers writing participating business are required by the Financial Services Authority to value their assets and liabilities on a market-consistent basis. The purpose of this paper is to: • Explain the valuation approach based on market-consistent values and its rationale. • Set out the issues faced by life insurers in implementing the regime. • Explain how insurers addressed these issues. • Explain the importance of the modeling techniques they used.

Description: Discusses the growing and evolving field of pricing and valuing stock option plans, and makes the case that actuaries are the professionals best qualified to serve clients in the field.

Description: This session from the 2005 SOA New Orleans Meeting discusses issues and concerns related to asset-liability ALM modeling. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 1.

Description: This article, with some humor, describes a movement known as “econophysics” of physicists modeling economic systems, including capital markets, using techniques and concepts developed in studying the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of complex systems. A version of this article appeared in The Actuary UK in August 2004. Reprinted with permission.

Description: Panelists discuss the basics of modeling including: model point selection, appropriate model granularity, static and dynamic model validation, efficient model refresh processes, assumption development, and reconciliation to actual financials. Session 8TS of the 2005 Valuation Actuary Symposium.

Description: Panelists discuss the subject of data modeling and then its application to benefit guarantees on variable annuities. Session 36PD of the 2005 Valuation Actuary Symposium.

Description: At this session 7OF of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium panelists discuss the conceptual and practical issues of modeling to reflect developing areas, including fair-value and embedded-value measurement, embedded guarantees and stochastically determined capital requirements.

Description: This session 5TS of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium covers the need to model assets in insurance companies has gone well beyond compliance with cash-flow testing requirements. Robust asset modeling techniques are needed in order to quantify risk exposures appropriately and to comply with a widening array of liability valuation and capital adequacy calculations that rely on stochastically modeling the interaction of liabilities and the assets that support them.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session 56PD, from the 2004 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held June 14-15 in San Antonio, TX. Tail risk, long recognized as important to insurance organizations, is being evaluated in a new light, with new approaches. The panelists review various approaches for measuring tail risk and how to price for tail risk using capital-market consistent techniques. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 2.

Description: Slides from a panel discussion session at the Spring meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Antonio, Texas, June 14-15, 2004 Discussion of the basics of actuarial appraisals: Panelists discussed the reasons to perform an actuarial appraisal, the processes involved, issues that should be addressed and assumption development.

Description: From a session at the Spring meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Antonio, Texas, June 14-15, 2004 This session covers different methods for estimating future volatility of financial markets, how to predict the effect of volatility on insurance company results, alternative approaches to managing volatility and the impact on volatility management on the choice of modeling method.

Description: This session at the 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium discusses advanced modeling techniques. Focus is on advanced liability and asset modeling issues, model distinctions between types of variable annuity guarantees, stochastic mortality, stochastic-on-stochastic modeling, and alternatives to stochastic modeling.

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. This session addressed the emerging practice where management is developing new ways to examine financial risks holistically in an integrated model.

Description: Announcement of an upcoming 2003 Stochastic Modeling Symposium.

Description: From a session at the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, September 19–20, 2002 Session topics included model hierarchy, statistical deterministic and stochastic models, real-life situations, how to organize a model effectively, structuring the model to fit the project or report data, sources/integrity techniques documentation, and constraints and limitations on models.

Description: 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Lake Buena Vista, FL. In this teaching session the instructor explained how to scrutinize model results and use models to make strategic decisions. Specific topics included validation of asset models, modeling considerations for derivatives and assets with embedded options, using models to assist with portfolio management, and using models to improve portfolio yields and realized product spreads.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session number 34PD, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. A fundamental step in stochastic asset/liability modeling is to choose an appropriate underlying economic scenario generator. In this session, panelists discuss various scenario generation techniques and theories, assumptions underlying interest and equity scenario generators, and choosing suitable economic scenario generators for different applications, the two most common being pricing models [for assets and liabilities], and risk analysis models, used for asset/liability management, investment strategy, regulatory solvency, and capital adequacy. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: From a session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Actuarial models must both accurately portray the assets and liabilities in question and produce relevant and meaningful projection results. The panel discusses important considerations in: • Proper organization of a model • Structuring of a model for an intended purpose i.e., pricing versus financial reporting, statutory versus GAAP accounting • Static and dynamic model validation techniques • Data integrity

Description: From a session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Teaching session covering the development of realistic liability models for use in asset adequacy analysis, asset/liability management, pricing/repricing, financial reporting or other corporate purposes. The primary focus is modeling issues for variable product features, such as minimum living or death benefit guarantees on both variable life and annuities, annuity death benefit enhancements, and variable immediate annuities. Topics include: • Analysis of the special risks posed by these products • Selecting realistic dynamic assumptions • Techniques used in modeling these products • Scenario testing and result presentation to best communicate risks

Description: A presentation on the principle of equivalent utility from the 2001 ARCH. Contains both the static and dynamic model as well as examples with exponential utility.

Description: This session 15 PD of the Toronto Spring Meeting includes an update on specific approaches adopted by Canadian insurers and regulators to deal with capital guarantees on segregated fund products, capital modeling in the Canadian banking industry, and emerging issues using these techniques in the U.S. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 27, No. 2, Session

Description: From a session at the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium held in Washington DC, September 14-15, 2000 Discussion of financial modeling considerations including: • Model platforms • Model structure • Static and dynamic model validation techniques • Data integrity

Description: From a teaching session at the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium held in Washington DC, September 14-15, 2000 Discussion of realistic liability models for use in asset adequacy analysis, asset/liability management, pricing/repricing, financial reporting, or other purposes.

Description: From a session at the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium held in Washington DC, September 14-15, 2000 This session talks about the issues that smaller companies deal with. Topics included: • Section 7 opinions —changing cash-flow testing requirements • C-3 risk-based capital requirements and methodologies • Setting and resetting X factors for Regulation XXX • Developing internal management systems • Regulatory update • Using outside consultants

Description: Slides from a session at a meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Diego, CA, June 22-23, 2000 This session discusses recent developments within the American Academy of Actuaries and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners with regard to reserving requirements for equity-indexed annuities and life insurance.

Description: From a session at a meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Diego, CA, June 22-23, 2000 The panel discusses: 1 Financial modeling tools used by the actuarial profession, 2 Pricing techniques used by Wall Street financial analysts, 3 Advantages and disadvantages of each approach 4 Market implications of each approach, and 5 Potential for harmonization of the two techniques.

Description: From a session at a meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in Las Vegas, NV May 22-24, 2000 The panelists cover: 1 The basic concepts underlying fuzzy logic, 2 Current applications to risk classification and pricing and 3 Future possible uses of fuzzy logic.

Description: In this paper we compute the conditional and unconditional probability of ruin for an individual who wishes to consume a fixed periodic amount from an initial endowment invested in a portfolio earning a stochastic rate of return. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.

Description: 1999 SOA Annual Meeting, San Francisco. This panel expanded on earlier research to examine the potential costs of long-term guarantees, transfer risk modeling techniques, and the formulation of practical strategies to manage investment accumulation products.

Description: This paper reviews validation for the model of a life insurance company's liabilities with actual company data. Two methods are reviewed: static and dynamic validation. From Society of Actuaries Financial Reporting Monograph, M-AS99-1.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 38TS, from the 1999 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 23-24 in Los Angeles. The instructors provide an introduction into how complex adaptive systems [CAS] can be applied to solve actuarial problems. They provide a general overview of CAS, including genetic algorithms, neural network, nonlinear modeling, and agent-based modeling, provide recent examples of applications to business problems, and discuss how CAS approaches can be used to address actuarial pricing and valuation issues, such as modeling customer behavior. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: Given that actuaries use models for statutory projections, GAAP projections, budgeting, corporate planning, and product pricing, often different models are used for each one of these activities leading to the possibility of assumption and model mismatch for several similar projections. The panelists discuss considerations in determining whether to integrate current models, and to maximize the potential of current models for multiple purposes. They also provide suggestions on how to integrate.